Strategy overview: Why do we build household + small commercial photovoltaics in Thailand, and how long can we do this?

1.1 Why: Why do it now instead of waiting two years?

From an operational logic point of view, the establishment of household and small commercial photovoltaics in Thailand does not rely on a single policy, but on the superposition of four conditions: first, the daytime load dominated by air conditioning really exists; second, the retail electricity purchase price is significantly higher than the long-term cost of electricity of rooftop photovoltaics; third, the grid-connected rooftop system already has a sufficiently mature standardized equipment and installation system; fourth, tax incentives and market education will be significantly accelerated starting in 2026, allowing customers to switch from "watching the excitement" to "seriously comparing plans."

For household customers, the real driving force is not to sell excess electricity, but to replace the most expensive daytime retail electricity first. For small commercial customers, the driving forces are more towards stable cash flow and predictable operating costs. In other words, the core of this business is not how much electricity is generated, but how much electricity is replaced that had to be purchased at a high price.

Judging from public information, PEA has announced that the current Ft from May to August 2026 is0.1623 THB/kWh; In the MEA/PEA electricity price system, the electricity bill consists of the basic electricity price, Ft and VAT. In other words, what the customer actually pays is not a single static number of "a few dollars per degree", but a dynamic structure that adjusts with Ft. Ft is reviewed every 4 months, which makes "locking in some future electricity costs" inherently business sense.

Therefore, the Thai market is not a market that can only be driven by stories, but a market that can already be measured using bills, loads, Ft adjustment cycles and system power generation. If you can explain the calculation clearly, you can make the transaction and delivery stable.

1.2 What: What is this business essentially selling?

If you understand this business as "selling components," you will ultimately be able to compete with the lowest price; if you understand it as "selling power generation," you will overemphasize the theoretical annual power generation; but if you understand it as "reconstructing electricity bills for customers in the next 10-25 years," your sales, design, construction, after-sales, and financial logic will be unified.

For household customers, the essence of the product is a 'home energy cost management tool'; for small commercial customers, the essence of the product is an 'electricity bill hedging tool during business hours'; for future EaaS/EMC, the essence of the product will become a 'long-term energy service contract'. The same roof system represents different things under different business models; first understand this difference clearly, so that the subsequent sales, delivery and operation and maintenance logic will not be confused.

Therefore, when understanding this business, the focus should not be on ‘we sell the best brand’, but on: we use standardized equipment, standardized processes and standardized delivery to help customers turn part of their future electricity bills from fluctuating expenses into manageable, predictable and trackable long-term costs.

1.3 Who / Where: Who should we target, which areas and customer groups should we prioritize?

Your business structure is already very clear: 80% residential, 20% small commercial. Therefore, the organizational design must be centered around high-quality user transactions, rather than based on the thinking of large-scale industrial and commercial EPC. The highest priority customer group is not all "people who want to pretend", but those who have a stable daytime load, are willing to hold the property for a long time, have requirements for aesthetics and after-sales service, and are willing to understand the logic of the plan.

Regionally, priority should be given to areas with heavy air-conditioning loads, high densities of villas and low-rise residences, and small and medium-sized businesses with long business hours during the day. Bangkok and its surrounding areas are more suitable for high-quality household and small commercial demonstrations; tourist and villa-type areas are more suitable for high-net-worth households and short-term rental properties; and the surrounding industrial belt is more suitable as a reserve market for small commercial and light factories.

In terms of customer group priority, it is recommended to filter at three levels: Category A is for high-net-worth self-occupied villa customers who have people at home or working during the day; Category B is for customers with stable business load during the day such as clinics, stores, B&Bs, small workshops, etc.; Category C is for customers with battery, EV or EaaS potential in the future. The priorities of different consultation objects are not the same. What really matters is the screening ability.

1.4 When / How long / How: How long is the window, how do we get things done?

If you ask how long this thing can be done, the answer is not a simple year, but a window judgment. As long as Thailand's air conditioning load remains strong during the day, the cost of retail electricity purchase is significantly higher than the long-term cost of self-built rooftop PV, grid-connected equipment continues to be standardized, and customers' concern about the stability of electricity bills does not decrease, this market will not disappear in the short term. What will really disappear is the profit window for extensive installers, not the industry itself.

From the perspective of business rhythm, the next three years will be more like the stage of ‘standardized building capabilities’: customer education continues, tax incentives increase willingness to consult, financing and EaaS are just beginning to have room for discussion, but the difference in organizational quality will quickly widen. In other words, now is not the time to focus on the story, but the time to focus on the process, craftsmanship, explanation ability, and completeness of the data.

How do you get this done? The answer is four things in parallel: First, use the Chinese supply chain to stabilize costs and delivery times; second, use Japanese craftsmanship to stabilize details and rework rates; third, users use consultative sales to screen projects correctly; fourth, use data and data accumulation to prepare for future EaaS/EMC. If the training outline cannot thoroughly cover these four points, the following chapters will fall apart.